Most predictably will be cast for Bush, following the pattern of overseas ballots in Florida.

CNN: Robert Novak: Setting the electoral record straight

Unless the Bush administration moves quickly to change the pattern, it will find itself slipping into a vicious cycle.

ECONOMIST: America and the UN | The

The pattern was interrupted when the financial crisis hit and 2007 and 2008, the last two years of the Bush administration, experienced a serious bear market but the circumstances were unusual, and the few times over the last hundred years that the cycle did not hold true to form did not affect the long-term percentage of the cycle.

FORBES: The Truth About Presidential Election Years And Stocks