Stated differently, if Simon was really betting that inflation-adjusted prices of a basket of commodity prices have a significantly negative trend over long periods of time, and Ehrlich was betting that the slope of that line was significantly positive, I think Simon wins the bet.

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"It's been a trend for us for a long time now, not getting one or two guys to stand up and score that hundred or even that 70 or 80 continuously, " Vettori said .

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Over a very long time, however, the market does follow a predictable trend.

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