【Key words】 software engineering； linear sequence model； prototyping； rapid application develop； unified software develop process；
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At the same time, due to the non-linear condition of time sequence, conventional linear Vector Autoregressive model can hardly characterize the causality among economic variables correctly.
同时由于时间序列的非线性，常规的线性向量自回归模型难以正确描述经济变量之间的因果关系。
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