Although the focus of questioning at the pre-match news conferences was the likelihood of controversy, it should not be forgotten that the last match was perhaps the best Old Firm game in terms of the quality of football played in recent times.

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Everton have been a long shot for such a finish all season, with a steadily declining likelihood from a recent high of 20% since match day 23.

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This provides for a much easier visualization of the impact each factor has on match outcome, but one cannot simply add up the likelihood of winning from each of the three factors to get the overall likelihood of moving on to the next round.

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