China, no doubt, views Mr Lien as President Lee's man, and therefore, in its eyes, as a provocateur more than a conciliator.

ECONOMIST: Uncertainty in Taiwan

If, closer to the election on March 18th, he convincingly overtook Mr Lien, President Lee might urge his followers to switch their support to Mr Chen, in a bid to frustrate Mr Soong, whom Mr Lee detests. (Got it?) Should such a strategy gave Mr Chen victory, he would face strains inside his own party.

ECONOMIST: Uncertainty in Taiwan

Since taking over from Mr Lee, Mr Lien has in the past year led the party back to its roots, much to the bewilderment of commentators who believed that 12 years of Mr Lee had banished the idea of reunification to the fringe of Taiwan's politics.

ECONOMIST: Taiwan