So despite having a drug in front of the FDA, AVEO is currently a negative return for its venture investors (the ones who have held large portions to date) or at most a marginal win (1.3x) for those that exited in 2011 (looks like Flagship has exited, whereas MPM, Highland have been holding at least some of their positions).
Mr Shiller himself has been involved in launching derivatives linked to home-price indices for both large and small investors, but with limited success to date.