Last week the Azerbaijani president, Heidar Aliev, said this second stage would require the Armenians also to give up the Lachin corridor and the town of Shusha, within Karabakh, which before the war had a predominantly Azeri population.

BBC: Karabakh: Are Things Moving?

Indeed, absent Russian efforts to reduce tensions, Armenia and Azerbaijan would almost certainly have gone to war over Nagorno-Karabakh sometime over the past five or six years.

FORBES: Putin Isn't "Gaining Ground" Regardless of what Amir Taheri Says

But Armenia gets a lot of its oil and gas from Iran, a vital supplier during its war against the Azeris over Karabakh.

ECONOMIST: The Caucasus