"Likely, " says James Poterba, president and CEO of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official umpire of U.S. recessions.

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The seven members of the committee who made the decision include economists Robert Hall (Stanford), Martin Feldstein (Harvard), Jeffrey Frankel (Harvard) and James Poterba (MIT).

BBC: US recession 'began last year'

Should this couple take the money out after ten years to start a business and get hit with a 10% penalty on top of their 25% rate, they'll end up with 7.5% less than if they'd invested in a taxable account and paid Uncle Sam each year, calculations based on the work of MIT economics professor James Poterba show.

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