He, too, is optimistic about the economy and markets.

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Now, says Mr. Alvarez, in theory at least (and he cautions against being too optimistic) if Microsoft can deliver Windows 8 on tablets and PCs, then it makes the jump to Windows Phone much smaller for consumers, enterprise users and, importantly, developers.

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Most of the world's oil analysts, he believes, are far too optimistic about how long existing fields will last, the prospects for new discoveries, technology's ability to unlock new sources and to extend the life of existing ones, and so on.

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