His model is based on factors such as changes in bank lending, the economic growth rate and the size of the speculative-grade market (a glut of issuance tends to be an indicator of loose lending practices).
The recent sizable underwriting of a 10-year IBM debenture with a 7.625% coupon is a leading indicator of the prospective spread contraction coming between high-grade corporates and 10-year Treasuries.
Published in November, the review by former college principal Huw Evans said some employers and universities do not think that a grade C at GCSE English, Welsh and maths is a reliable indicator of literacy and numeracy skills.