Any forecasting system, from quake prediction to cancer screening, can be analysed in the same way once the base-rate and accuracy figures are given.
所有的预测系统,从地震预测到癌症诊断,只要给定事件基础概率和预测准确率,都可以用这种方法分析相关的概率。
Prediction markets aren't perfect, but they often beat alternative forecasting mechanisms.
预测市场并非十全十美,但它们通常比其它预测方法更可信。
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