But I can't help recalling the words of the eminent economist who said he was willing to forecast a number or a date — but not both — because it made it too easy to prove him wrong.

但是，我还是忍不住会想起某位著名经济学家的话。他说，他宁愿只预测一个数字或者一个日期，而不是同时预言二者，因为那样的话，很容易出错。

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NOT SO long ago, prediction markets were being tipped as a fantastic new way to forecast everything from the completion date of a vital project to a firm’s annual sales.

不久之前，市场预测被描述为一种预报一切事物的极好方式，从重要项目的最终数据完成日期到公司每年的销售量。

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This enables you to move into Level 4, where you can better manage your test schedules and defect rates — and even forecast the release date.

这是你能够进入到第四级，你将可以更好地管理你的测试时间表和错误率——甚至可以预报发布时间。

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In other words, by the time the computer has worked out how the fire will spread, the forecast is already long out of date.

ECONOMIST: Next, the fire forecast

On March 19th this was forecasting a default rate on high-yielding American corporate bonds of 8.55% by the end of February 2009, compared with Moody's forecast for American bonds of 6.8% for that date.

ECONOMIST: Bankruptcies in America

Down 10% year to date, CommVault shares sell for a relatively pricey 26 times the Thomson IBES consensus forecast on next-12-month earnings.

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