...于其负债价值（资不抵债），该公司即 实质上已经破产，1993年KMV公司通过研究提出的预期违约频率（Expected Default Frequency，EDF）就是基于这一理论。
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KMV模型采用的“预期违约率”(Expected Default Frequency),是一种经验的违约率。KMV模型基本假设是当公司的资产价值低于一定水平时,公司就会违约。
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...率与实际违约概率具有一定的差距，为区分理论违约概率（Q）与实际违约概率，KMV引入了期望违约率（Expected Default Frequency，EDF）的概念。
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expected default frequency model 期望违约率模型
The expected default frequency of listed companies can be measured, which is identical with the change of the listed companies' credit quality.
上市公司的预期违约频率与该公司的信用资质变化吻合，并载有公司未来前景的情报性信号。
The KMV Model, which is based on Merton′s option pricing theory, is applied to get the expected default frequency and default loss of the loan.
运用基于期权定价理论的KMV模型来得到公司的预期违约率和违约损失，从而能合理地确定贷款利率。
The research comes to a conclusions : (1) The stock price fluctuation of listed companies is obviously related to its expected default frequency, and the relation is negative;
研究结果表明：（1）上市公司的股票价格波动与该公司的预期违约频率显著相关，且呈负相关关系；
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