The Chicago purchasing managers index startled markets on November 27th by surging from 45.9 in October to 54.3 in November. (Any reading over 50 suggests that manufacturing activity is expanding, while a reading of less than 50 suggests recession.) Unfortunately, the equivalent national numbers, released on December 2nd, showed a less perky jump from 48.5 in October to 49.2 in November, leaving it in recession for the third consecutive month (see chart).
They will watch the reports in coming weeks to get a more steady reading on jobless claims, while unemployment is still being reflected in the still subdued consumer spending activity and slow hiring in construction and professional business services.