Conclusion GM (1, 1) model can be well used to the short term prediction of Cardiocerebrovascular disease, but it is not very well in mid term or long term prediction.

结论GM(1,1)模型能够较好的用于疾病死亡率的近期预测，而中长期预测的效果不太理想。

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The dependence duration may persist 8-9 years, implying that the long-term dependence may be a very important factor and must be considered in the trend prediction of rain acidity.

长程相关的时间可达8 ~ 9年，表明长程相关性是降水酸度趋势预测中必须考虑的重要因子。

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