According to the principle and method of Markov chain forecast, this paper analyses the changeable trend of future flood at Jinqu basin.
根据马尔可夫链预测的原理和方法，分析了金衢盆地未来洪水的变化趋势。
The Markov method can forecast the future state of things by studying the initial probability of differ states and transfer probability among the stages.
马氏链预测法是通过对事物不同状态的初始概率及状态之间的转移概率的研究，预测事物的未来状态。
Markov Chain is suitable for short-term forecast of great capacity sample data sequence, but gray system forecast method is suitable for medium-term forecast of few capacity sample data sequence.
马尔柯夫链适用于大样本数据序列的短期预测，而灰色系统预测方法适用于小样本数据的中期预测。
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