The mid and long term forecast model based on the time series analysis has a good forecast effect.

建立在时间序列分析基础上的中长期预报模型具有很好的预报效果，可以用于作业预报。

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With the model, three dimensions FEM rheology analysis to Xia Liujia is finished, and the stress at different time distortion rule are gained, the long-term work character is forecast.

最后用该模型对下六甲面板堆石坝作了三维有限元蠕变分析，得到坝体在不同时期的应力及变形规律，预测了坝体长期的工作性态。

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Because of the inherent bias in the traditional grey-forecasting model and the fixed choice of its parameter, the forecast precision is relatively low and unsuitable to the long-term forecasting.

由于传统灰色预测模型固有的偏差和模型参数的固定选择，导致预测精度较低，不适应中长期负荷预测。

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