Think about the probability: the chances of your line being the fastest are only one in three.

想一想这个概率：你的队伍最快的几率只有三分之一。

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There is a line of psychological research that studies precisely this, by measuring how accurate we are at making probability judgments.

心理学研究中有一个门类专门研究这个问题，方法是测定人们在做出概率判断时的准确性。

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The next line tells us that, were we to measure a, we would see "0" with probability "1".

下面一行告诉我们，如果我们要测量 a ，那么我们认为“0”的概率为“1”。

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So this line represents the expected payoff of shooting to the middle as a function of the probability that the goal keeper dives to the right.

这条线表示从中路射门时罚球者的收益,是门将扑向右路概率的一个函数

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And here's my green line representing my expected payoff as the shooter, from shooting to the right, as a function of the probability that the goalie dives to the right.

这条绿线表示作为一个罚球球员,我从右路射门的收益,是门将扑向右路概率的一个函数

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Conversely, if you think the goalie's going to shoot to the right with probability more than a ?, then the best you can do is represented by the pink line, and that's shooting to the left, or if you think the goalie's going to dive to the right with the probability more than a ?, the best you can do, your best response is to shoot to the left.

相反如果你认为门将扑向右侧的概率,大于?的情况下,此时你最佳策略用粉线表示,即从左路射门,也就是说如果你觉得门将扑向右路的,概率大于?的话,你最好选择从左路射门

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