On February 22, 2013, Frederic Mishkin, PeterHooper, James Hamilton and David Greenlaw published Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy, an 86-page paper that predicts the Fed will stare down the barrel of a few hundred billion dollars of losses when interest rates rise.
PeterHooper and Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank reckon that if saving stays at about 6% of income, write-offs remain near today's elevated level and household income rises by 4.5% a year, household debt will fall from 126% of disposable income now to around 85%, where it was in the early 1990s, by 2013 (see chart 3).