On the best long-term measure, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, Wall Street looks overvalued on a multiple of 21.9, some 33% above the historic average.

用最好的衡量长期收益的工具——周期性调整市盈率——衡量，华尔街金融市场的溢价为21.9倍，高于历史均值大约33%。

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He points out that American equities are significantly overvalued on the best long-term measure, the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio which smooths profits over ten years.

他指出最优的长期预测工具，周期调整市盈率由于将过去十年间的利润进行了平滑，现在已显著高估了美国股票的价格。

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And valuations are not yet at fire-sale levels; the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio of the American market is 14.5, compared with previous bear-market lows in single digits.

对其的估价也还未到甩卖的地步。与之前个位数的熊市相比，现在美国市场周期性调整的市盈率是14.5。

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There is no graph of the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, another valuation measure, in its presentation book, although the subject did arise in questions at the conference: David Kostin, a strategist, said Wall Street was slightly above fair value on this measure.

ECONOMIST: Two contrary views on the outlook for markets

The cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio (which smooths profits over ten years) is still 21.4, well above the historical average, according to Robert Shiller of Yale University.

ECONOMIST: Buttonwood