Paulinho was part of a six-man break, which included French pair Pierre Rolland and Maxime Bouet, but he and Caisse d'Epargne's Kiryienka eventually finished over a minute ahead of the other four.
Contador has kept quiet in the lead up to the race, although he has been strongly linked with a possible move to the Caisse d'Epargne team but 1996 Tour winner Bjarne Riis is under no illusions about Contador's chances.