Across the developing world, changes of that kind would entail a complete overhaul of some of the world's least capable and most corrupt states: to make them rational in their land use, honest in their accounting, responsive to their citizens. That is not going to happen fast, as the sorry history of development assistance suggests. But REDD, provided its design holds firm, can do better. Its rewards must be sufficiently large and long-term to persuade rainforest countries to straighten themselves out. And they must be results-based.

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