给出了基于一阶和二阶改进预测有效度最优级原则的中长期负荷组合预测模型。

Meanwhile, it is obtained the combined model of mid-long term load forecast based on the 1-order and 2-order improved forecast effectiveness optimum principle.

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通过引入可信赖域，改进预测精度矩阵，来推导单个预测和组合预测的阶预测有效度。

The method deduces the forecast effectiveness of single and combined forecast by introducing confidence field and improving forecast precision matrix.

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针对基于预测有效度的组合预测模型提出了新的优性组合预测、预测方法优超和冗余度的概念；

New concepts are proposed for the combination forecasting effective measure models: superior combination forecasting, dominant forecasting method and redundant measure.

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