如我要说明的，项目参数估计中偏差的减少是管理动态系统开发的关键。
As I will show, reduction of variance in the estimates of project parameters is the key to managing the dynamics of system development.
很明显，随着项目参数估计中方差的增加，成功完成项目的可能性就减少。
Clearly, as the variance in the estimates of project parameters increases, the likelihood of completing the project successfully decreases.
本论文共分三章，主要内容安排如下：第一章简单介绍了项目反应理论模型和几种常见的参数估计的方法。
This paper is divided into three chapters, the content is as follows: chapter I simply introduces the model of the item response theory and some useful methods of parameter estimation.
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