肾脏病的随机观察性研究:证据可靠性如何?
Randomized and Observational Studies in Nephrology : How Strong Is the Evidence?
方法随机观察肝移植患者41例,其中出现排斥反应16例(急性排斥12例,慢性排斥4例)。
Methods Randomly investigate 41 liver transplantation patients, among them there were 16 patients with reject reaction (including 12 with acute rejection, 4 with chronic rejection).
这意味着研究人员可能会决定只观察在每20分钟内随机分布的15秒间隔。
That means the researcher might decide to observe only during 15 second intervals that are randomly distributed within each 20 minute period.
When we looked at the random walk series I think the representativeness heuristic played a role in there as well.
当我们观察随机漫步序列时,我认为代表性原则偏误,也起了一定作用
When you look at a random walk you have the intuitive impression that you can extrapolate it -that it doesn't look like -you can't believe it's really random, but the reason you can't is because you overweigh the probability of certain things that caught your attention.
当人们观察随机漫步序列时会有直观印象,并可以以此类推,虽然这看起来并不像...,人们不会觉得这是完全随机的,之所以如此,是因为,人们过分高估了特定事物发生的可能性,这吸引了人们的注意
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