...阿格沃尔模型;国际收支 [gap=884]Key words: foreign exchange reserve, appropriate foreign exchange reserve scale, Agarwall Model,international receipt and expenditure ..
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Following that this essay chooses the modified Agarwal model to calculate welfare effect of foreign exchange reserve according to the data between 1994 and 2005, analyzing cost and benefit of foreign exchange reserve fundamentally.
然后根据我国的实际情况对阿格沃尔模型作了改进,并运用改进后的阿格沃尔模型对1994-2005年间我国外汇储备激增的福利效应进行量化分析,从根本上分析我国持有外汇储备的成本和收益。
参考来源 - 我国外汇储备的适度性研究及政策建议·2,447,543篇论文数据，部分数据来源于NoteExpress
本文从阿格沃尔模型的推导过程入手，对运用阿格沃尔模型测算目前我国适度外汇储备量存在的局限性加以说明。
This article first analyzes the operational process of Agarwall Model and then shows the imitation of predicting foreign exchange reserve of our country at present by applying this model.
本文通过运用比例分析法和修正过的阿格·沃尔模型确定我国外汇储备的适度区间，进一步判定目前我国外汇储备规模是超额的。
To use ratio method and modified Agarwal model to define the moderate scope of reserves and find out that China's reserves are excessive.
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