确定股权回报率是进行长期投资决策的关键步骤，但在现实非理性世界中难以直接运用传统财务理论所推荐的资本资产定价模型来确定股权回报率。

To set rate of equity returns is a critical step for long-term investment decisions, but in a realistic irrational world, its not easy to do that using CAPM familiar in standard financial theory.

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But, when you move from lending money to the government -either short-term with bills or longer term with bonds -to investing in the equity market, there's a stunning difference in terms of the returns.

当你转变投资方式,从借钱给政府,即通过短期债券或长期债券的形式,变成投资于股票市场,回报率的差别会大到让你吃惊

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