当实际的有效需求大于充分就业的有效需求时，必然存在一部分过度的需求，即存在着“膨胀的缺口”（inflationary gap）。膨胀的缺口是指实际的有效需求与充分就业的有效需求的差距。
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1981 - 83年一个类似水平的产出缺口(7%左右)引起通货膨胀率下降了6个百分点。
A comparable gap in 1981-83 produced a drop in core inflation of six percentage points.
他们不是按照传统根据产出缺口来推测通货膨胀率，而是反过来：从通货膨胀的走势来推测产出缺口。
Rather than follow the conventional route of deriving an inflation forecast from an estimate of potential output, they do the opposite: they infer the output gap from the behaviour of inflation.
然而甚至是Ashworth先生也承认，核心通货膨胀率和工资增长水平都还没下降到产出缺口和失业率这两者似能预测的那种程度。
Yet even Mr Ashworth admits that core inflation and wage growth have not fallen as much as the output gap and unemployment would seem to predict.
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