...财经大学本科毕业论文 以及Melino Turnbull 、Harvey et al 、J acquier et al 的随机波动性模型( Stochastic Volatility Model , SV) EMBED Equation.3 。
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采用传统灰色GM(1,1)模型预测道路交通事故这类随机性、波动性较大的数据，存在拟合较差、精度不足等问题。
Random and volatile data of road traffic accidents show poor fitness and low accuracy if forecast by means of the traditional grey model GM (1, 1).
这种模型不适合长期的、随机和波动性较大的数据序列预测。
This model is not suited to forecast the accidents in long term with randomness and great changed data.
特别地，这种模型的预测结果比其它随机波动性较大的数据到模型的预测结果精确得多。
Particularly, the obtained results are more precise than those by other models for data sequences with heaVy random fluctuation.
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