文章详细信息 关键词： 近代中国;;农村物价;;物价变动趋势 [gap=467]Keywords: modern China; rural price; trend of change of price
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文章对2008年以来物价变动的翘尾因素、新涨价因素，以及物价变动的成本因素进行分解，以此为视角考察未来物价的短期与中长期发展趋势。
The paper studies and analyses the tail-raising factor, new price-rising factor of price variation as well as cost factor of price variation since the beginning of 2008.
本文测算了我国菲利普斯曲线的动态变化，得出了产出缺口的变动对物价的影响基本呈现稳定的下降趋势的结论，即菲利普斯曲线逐渐变得平缓。
The paper calculates the dynamic philips curve and argues that the effect of the output gap on price tends to decline, i. e. , the slope of philips curve is becoming smaller.
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