本文提出了一种基于故障树分析和统计概率的模块化专家系统，作为此大型指挥控制系统电路的故障实时监测之用。
A modularization expert system based fault-tree analysis and statistical probability for real time fault detection of large anfractuous circuit is proposed in this paper.
基于系统的状态划分，以统计理论的观点分析了容错控制系统中的故障概率、容错能力和可靠性问题。
The fault probability, the degree of fault tolerance and problem of reliabilty in the fault tolerant control system are analyzed in the view of statistics.
由于试验数据和训练数据有限，传统的故障树分析难以对“卡管”事故原因及出现概率做出准确评价。
Because of the limitation of test and training data, the traditional fault tree analysis (FTA) method cannot provide accurate diagnosis.
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