系统动力学模型的基本模拟结果显示，城镇用地的长期变化趋势是一种“S”型的增长规律，从1980年至2030年是城镇用地变化的快速增长阶段。
The basic result of system dynamics simulation shows that the long term trend of urban land change is a "s shaped" curve, and the fastest period is between 1980 and 2030.
土地利用尤其是城镇用地及农村居民点变化是引起区内人口分布变化的重要因素，此外自然条件、政策、经济、三峡工程等对区内人口分布变化也有一定影响。
We find out that except natural environment, policy and economy and so on, land use is the main factor especially for urban land use and rural residential land use.
城镇建设用地通过大量占用耕地而扩展，非城镇建设用地间结构变化明显；
The urban construction land was increasingly expanding by massively occupying arable land and there was a remarkable structural change of non-urban construction land;
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