盈余组成份子预测数字之可靠性与攸关性探讨_电子资料文库 关键词:财务预测,盈余组成份子,可靠性,攸关性 [gap=1582]Keywords: earnings forecasting, earnings components, reliability, relevance.
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Earnings Forecasting Behaviour 盈余预测行为
earnings per share forecasting 利润分享预测
forecasting earnings information 预测性盈利信息
This provide us a new idea: in earnings forecasting field using earnings persistence (A) to adjust post earnings would make better forecasting. After that this paper continues to study the market value of the forecasted surplus.
本文首先以盈余持续性为研究对象,首次采用盈余变异系数作为盈余持续性的表征变量,考察中国证券市场不同行业上市公司的会计盈余特征,观测各行业上市公司盈余持续性的不同特点;然后把盈余持续性因素添加到盈余的预测模型中,进行实证研究,验证盈余持续性对于盈余预测的影响;最后本文使用含有盈余持续性变量的盈余预测模型,利用当期盈余信息,计算出下期的预测盈余,考察预测盈余与标的股票市场价格的关系。
参考来源 - 盈余持续性对盈余预测影响的实证研究·2,447,543篇论文数据，部分数据来源于NoteExpress
One problem in forecasting earnings, he says, is that the Internet and real-estate bubbles pushed corporate profit margins to 7%, above the historical level of 6%.
他说，预测收益时存在的一个问题是，互联网和房地产泡沫将公司利润率推高到7%，超过了6%的历史水平。
Such write-offs, he argues, won't be repeated, so earnings including them shouldn't be used for forecasting.
他说，这种规模的冲销以后不会再出现了，所以反映了这些冲销的企业利润不应用于预测。
Forecasting of listed companies' future earnings is an important issue for investors, stockbrokers, creditors and administrators.
预测上市公司的未来收益是投资者、证券商、债权人和管理层所关注的问题。
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