By using the cointegration testing and vector autoregression models, we examine the long-run equilibrium and short-run fluctuations in the growth-led roles of foreign aggregate supply and demand.

本文利用协整关系检验和向量自回归模型，从短期波动和长期均衡角度，描述和检验了国外总需求和总供给对中国经济增长的拉动作用。

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In this paper a variety of time series nonlinear models are introduced and the idea and modeling method of the threshold autoregression are discussed in detail.

本文概述了时序分析的非线性模型类，详细叙述了门槛自回归模型的建模思想和方法。

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