Looking at the 2007-09 financial crisis, a similar pattern emerges. The casualties had one big factor in common – real estate exposure – which they took on in different ways. First, consider AIG. While a large portion of its risk was taken via derivatives, there is no doubt that what turned bad was the underlying real estate risk. It also took large positions in the cash subprime market and its cash losses may well exceed whatever losses it suffers on its derivatives position.

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