同时，分析了储油罐震害预测中影响较大的随机性因素，并建议了主要随机变量的概率模型和统计特征值的选取方法。
The most important random factors in the earthquake disaster prediction is analyzed, the probabilistic model and statistical characteristic value of the primary random variables are also put forward.
预测结果真实可靠，为进一步进行抗震规划和统计震害损失提供依据。
The predictive result is a useful reference for the plan and prediction of seismic damage.
论文主要完成了以下工作：1、介绍了土坝震害预测与评估研究的现状及必要性，并简单介绍了袁一凡教授的土坝震害经验统计判断模型。
Main research works include:1, The necessity of the study on seismic disaster prediction in earth dam is introduced, the development and state of seismic disaster prediction are briefly discussed.
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