结论：移动平均比率法可以为我们提供较准确的预测数据，为医院管理提供决策依据。
Conclusion: Moving average rate method can provide precise data for us and it can be used for reference for hospitals management.
移动平均法是一种时间序列预测法，当时间序列没有明显的趋势变动时，使用移动平均就能够准确地反映实际情况。
Moving average method is one of time series forecasting method, if time series have no apparent tendency moving, using moving average method can accurately reflect actual situation.
结论移动平均比率法综合考虑长期、季节、周期及随机趋势，预测效果较好。
Conclusions Moving seasonal mean ratio method could consider secular, seasonal, cyclic and random tendencies of time-series data together and could serve as a useful tool for prediction.
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