结论：移动平均比率法可以为我们提供较准确的预测数据，为医院管理提供决策依据。
Conclusion: Moving average rate method can provide precise data for us and it can be used for reference for hospitals management.
结论移动平均比率法综合考虑长期、季节、周期及随机趋势，预测效果较好。
Conclusions Moving seasonal mean ratio method could consider secular, seasonal, cyclic and random tendencies of time-series data together and could serve as a useful tool for prediction.
方法 用季节预测法中的移动平均比率法计算趋势值与调整月指数 ，最后应用模型。
Methods The trend values were calculated and the monthly indexes were adjusted with moving average method of season prediction method, and then the model was applied.
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