线性回归模型的误差项不服从正态分布或存在多个离群点时，可以将残差秩次的某些函数作为权重引入估计模型来减少离群点的不良影响。

When multiple outliers occur in linear regression model or the distribution of residuals is not normal, we can use residuals rank as weight function to get some resist estimator.

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该模型采用ARMA模型描述实测流量的先验分布，采用AR模型模拟预报残差的似然函数，并假定先验分布和似然函数均服从正态分布。

The ARMA model was used to describe the prior distribution of observed discharge and the ar model was adopted to simulate the likelihood function of forecasting error.

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