根据油田原油产量为随机线性变化趋势，采用二次指数平滑方法进行预测。
According to the random linearity change trend of crude production rate, using the secondary exponential smoothing predicts the crude production rate.
首先，本文给出了三种指数平滑方法的定义，并分析了每种方法的特点，预测方法的选取主要取决于三种方法的差异性。
Firstly, the definition of exponential smoothing is presented. Then three models' characteristics are analyzed. How we choose these three models is based on these differences mainly.
由历史数据推测未来趋势的众多方法中较突出的有：时间序列法、最小平方法、指数平滑法、回归分析和相关分析。
Prominent among the various techniques that can help to extrapolate past date into future trends are the following:time series, least squares method, exponential smoothing, regression and correlation.
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