尾事件罕见但他们仍然具有重要经济意义的。
Tail events are rare but they are nevertheless economically important.
但金融史中充斥着泡沫和崩盘,也就是说,极端事件(即所谓的“肥尾”)发生的频率要远大于钟形曲线所预计的。
But financial history is littered with bubbles and crashes, demonstrating that extreme events or so-called "fat tails" occur far more often than the bell curve predicts.
换句话说,它并非带有肥尾的一系列离散事件的随机结果,而是在事先观察到上升的宏观及金融风险后完全可以预见到的。
In other words, it was not a random drawing from a distribution of events with a fat tail but actually predictable in advance given the rising macro and financial risks and vulnerabilities.
应用推荐