道指已经连涨八天了,你可以抛硬币看看连续八次同一面是多么小概率的事件。
The Dow has been up eight days in a row. Try flipping a coin and catching tails eight times in a row.
然而,对小概率的权重也会因人而异,它反映了个体在财富状况等方面的差异也会对小概率事件的赋权产生影响。
However, there is an "interpersonal difference" in the weighting of probabilities which reflects the particular circumstances of individuals, including their wealth status.
帕米萨诺和罗梅蒂在7月29日同一天生日,这可是365分之1的小概率,考虑到闰年,可能更小;这是某种预兆吗?
In a 1-out-of-365 chance, or less considering leap year, Palmisano and Rometty share the same birthday, July 29th; is that an omen of some kind?
And the trend always is that the probability gets smaller with each of the peaks as you're drawing them.
当你画它们的时候,整体趋势总是每个峰概率越来越小。
We had no chance whatsoever. Our odds were this small.
我们根本都没有机会。胜算的概率这么小。
It's about how so many plans in finance are messed up by rare events that suddenly appear out of nowhere.
书中提到金融界中突然出现的小概率事件,怎样搞砸了无数计划
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