他们选择了历史上两次大流感作为流感模型,其一是1918年著名的西班牙大流感,死亡人数达五千万至一亿,其二是1957年的流感,杀伤力较前者虽不大,但同样不堪回首。
As model epidemics they chose those of 1918 (the famous “Spanish” flu that is reckoned to have killed 50m-100m) and 1957 (less lethal, but still pretty nasty).
他们先从两个简单的量入手对一个最优结论做出定义,其一是未传染的数量,其二是未死亡的数量。
As definitions of a good outcome they started with two simple measures: the number of infections averted, and the number of deaths averted.
其一是关于评估,其二是关于估价。
In a famous passage from chapter 11 he posits, as he puts it, "a general inclination of all mankind, a perpetual and restless desire " of power after power that ceaseth only in death."
在第十一章的著名段落里,他说,“全人类共有的普遍倾向是,得其一思其二,死而后已,永无休止的权势欲“
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