我准备教你一个思考策略，它的核心就是让你在概率方面有坚定的信念。

I'm going to teach you a thinking strategy that has, at its core, a firm belief in probabilities and edges.

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在人们开始编制概率法则之前很早，信念程度的表达就已经在语言中使用了。

Expressions of degree of belief were used in language long before people began codifying the laws of probability theory.

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显然，如果我们的信念和环境不一致，那么犯错的概率就高。

Obviously, if our beliefs are not consistent with what works from the environments perspective, the potential for making a mistake is high, if not inevitable.

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So on the horizontal axis is my belief, and my belief is essentially the probability that the goalie dives to the right.

横轴表示的是我的信念,我的信念表示,我认为门将扑向右路的概率

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It's my belief that the other guy's going to choose Right.

也就是我关于对手选右概率的信念

耶鲁公开课 - 博弈论课程节选

So here what we did before was we drew these graphs with probabilities, with beliefs of Player I and the problem here is, previously we had a nice simple graph to draw because there were just two strategies for Player II.

我们之前画了有关概率的图像,图像是在参与人的某个信念下的,但问题是之前参与人II只有两个策略,所以我们能画出那个简单的图像

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