目的探讨传递函数模型在卫生人力资源预测中的应用价值。
To explore the application of transfer function-noise model in the prediction of health manpower resources.
本文对残差具有异方差性的传递函数模型提出了一种新的模型——条件异方差传递函数模型，并对建立此类模型的条件和拟合及预测效果进行了研究。
In this paper, a new model-transmissibility function model with conditional heteroscedasticity is proposed, and its conditions as well as the fitting and forecasting effect have been studied.
使用传递函数模型对时间序列进行分析，最大的意义在于提高预测精度。
The most important purpose to analyze time series with transfer function model is improving the precision of forecast.
结论传递函数模型在预测中可以纳入有关影响因素，该预测结果理论上更符合实际情况。
So, the related factors can be included the transfer function-noise model and the prediction results fit the fact more precisely.
由于传递函数模型是在利用ARIMA模型理论基础上，同时将输入序列的变化对输出序列预测值的影响充分的加以考虑，所以可以使预报误差大大降低。
Transfer function model reduced error of forecast due to it made use of ARIMA model theory as well as calculated affection of input series leading the predicted value of output series.
由于传递函数模型是在利用ARIMA模型理论基础上，同时将输入序列的变化对输出序列预测值的影响充分的加以考虑，所以可以使预报误差大大降低。
Transfer function model reduced error of forecast due to it made use of ARIMA model theory as well as calculated affection of input series leading the predicted value of output series.
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