你们可能问自己，为什么一个有错误的结论的论点，应该是一个有效的论点，这是好论点。
And you might ask yourself, why should an argument that has a false conclusion be an useful argument. Mind at good argument.
我想知道你们是如何得出结论的。
关于有效论点的一件很有意思的事，就像你们看到他们可能有错误的结论。
One of the interesting things about valid arguments as you'll see is that they can have false conclusion.
如果前提中没有真理，就不一定，在结论中有真理，这就是为什么我告诉你们前提，不为真，这能是非常有用的信息。
If there isn't truth in the premises there won't necessarily be truth in the conclusion and that's why I tell you the premises are not true which might be very useful information.
过去三天中你们一直在探讨这些问题，我期待你们的结论。
You have been exploring these issues during the past three days, and I look forward to your conclusions.
现在唯一重要的是你们要理解，什么事演绎的有效论点，也就是真理保留，如果前提是真的，结论必定是真的。
The only that that is important now is that you understand what a deductively valid argument is. That it is truth preserving, if the premises are true then the conclusion must be true.
所以你们明白我即使在结论里加上否定，也不会改变有效性。
So you see I can add in even a negation of the conclusion and it hasn't changed the validity.
如果句子中有特点的话，你们可以有一个只能做结论的句子，非常怪不是吗？
If it's intrinsic to the sentence then you have a sentence that can only be a conclusion, which is rather odd isn't it?
如果我们看到有效论点的结论为假，你们知道什么？有一点长。
So if we see the conclusion of a valid argument is false what do you know? A little bit longer.
你们只能通过，它在句子中的作用来识别结论。
You can only tell which the conclusion is by looking at the function played by the particular sentence.
我这周稍微变化一下，你们记得上周，我说或多或少的时候遇到了一点问题，因为我们不想前提变得比，结论更不可能，是吗？
Okay I have put it slightly differently this week; you remember last week I got in trouble by phrasing it more or less because we don't want the premises to be less probable than the conclusion do we?
你们记得这里前提，指的是一个人群样本，结论假设了其他人群。
So do you remember here that the premise point to a sample of population and the conclusion extrapolates to the rest of the population.
找一些你们喜欢在酒吧里证明的，写下你们的结论和前提。
Find something which you like to argue about in the pub write down your conclusion and write down your premises.
都是，如果前提可以为真，同时结论为假，是你们要知道的一件事。
It's both together. So if the premises can be true together with the conclusion being false okay so that's one of the things you're looking out for.
你们明白实际上这是个条件句，一个复杂句也可以是结论。
Can you see that the fact that it's a conditional sentence a complex sentence doesn't stop it from being a conclusion.
论点前提为真,结论为真，想想问题：,你们认为这种论点有效吗？
The premises of the argument are true and the conclusion is true. Okay think of the question: do you think arguments of this sort could be valid?
不可能前提为真，结论为假，但是你们不明白，因为他循环，所以有效。
There's no possible situation where the premises are true and the conclusion false but what you don't see that it is only valid because it's circular.
你们有很高的储蓄率，良好的教育体系（译者：我不知道他怎么的出来的结论），大量经验丰富的海外高知识人才，以及充足的资金。
You have very high savings rates, extremely good education, and overseas Chinese with lots of expertise and money to invest in China.
我希望你们能不经数学运算，而定性判断出结论。
I'm going to let you try to figure that out qualitatively without doing any math.
只要你们明白,只要停止思考有效论点有,真前提和真结论，你们就明白了。
And as soon as you understand that and as soon as you stop thinking of a valid argument having true premises and true conclusion you will see what's going on here.
你们不用把前提1全都写出来,就写P！，或者什么都不写，假设前提在前面,结论在后面。
You don't have to write out premise one in full you can just write P1, or you don't even have to write that, you can just assume the premises come first and then the conclusion.
他的结论就是“新闻媒体的负面评价以及部分法国精英群体反感美国恰恰反映出他们嫉妒你们的聪明才智所创造出来的成就。”
His conclusion was that "the virulence of the press and a portion of the French elites against the United States reflects a certain envy of your brilliant success."
所以你们看到这不是有效论点，因为前提，没关系，前提有多真，完全与结论无关，不是吗？
So you see that isn't a valid argument the reason because is that the premise-it doesn't matter how true the premise is, it's completely irrelevant to the conclusion isn't it?
这篇文章将要提到的战略设计师的5个秘密就是来源于我个人思考总结的一些结论，现在分享于你们。
These 5 secrets of Strategic Designers have been derived from some of my conclusions, and I would like to now share this with you.
除了你们今天讨论的结果、建议和结论存有价值之外，我认为该报告凝聚着很大的智慧。
Apart from the value of the findings, recommendations, and conclusions you have been discussing today, I believe the report embodies great wisdom.
重要的实用结论是，找到真理确实需要赢得争论，但其意义并非在于我的论点击败了你们的论点。
The important practical conclusion is that finding the truth does require winning arguments, but not in the sense that my argument defeats yours.
他说：“我认为你们会得出结论，那就是哇，他其实和我们差不多。”
And I think what you will conclude is, 'Gee, he is sort of like us.
现在你可能有点担心这个，但是让我给你们一些不当结论的例子，这些都是明显的不当结论。
Now you might be a bit worried about this but let me just give you examples of non sequiturs that are obvious that they are non sequiturs.
你们明白句子看起来非常像，但是他们不是，因为这个有先行词，作为第二个前提，这个用结论，作为第二个前提。
You see the sentences look very similar but of course they are not because this one is taking the antecedent as the second premise and this one is taking the consequence as the second premise.
你们的专家在你们太阳系内其他的行星上寻找生命，正因为那些生命形式不同于你们地球上的，才会得出一个“假设”结论——那些行星上面没有生命存在。
Your academics look for life on other planets within your solar system, and because they are different from your Earth, assume that no life exists upon them.
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