So I started to talk to the VCs and asking for $10 million at a very, very difficult time in Internet history.
就在互联网历史上最艰难的时期,我开始跟风险投资商接洽,向他们要1000万美元。
And they go through these arguments, and they find venture money to fund the company, and they get very famous people to endorse them, etcetera.
然后他们就这些论证展开讨论,找风险投资,来资助其公司,还找著名人士,来支持他们,等等等等。
I wrote this book in 2000 right at the peak of-- fortunately right at the peak of the stock market.
我2000年写这本书的时候,当时希勒教授在书中提醒投资者注意泡沫风险 股市正处于最高点 2个月后此预言果然应验
They say with the contraction in Venture Capital doesn't mean we're not going to get good solutions to the business problems we face.
他们认为风险投资上的契约并不意味着,能有好的方式来解决面临的商业困难。
I love this because I would go around to all these angel investors 0 and VCs and charge them $5 or $50 to show them my new idea.
我喜欢这个成果,因为这样我就能四处拜访天使投资者,和风险资本家,收取他们5或50美元的费用0,向他们展示我的新想法。
After we took some from these guys, we decided that it is OK to go a few months in cash flow negative while... But very barely cash flow.
当风险投资资金到位之后,有几个月现金流出现负值也可以接受,但其实没有什么现金流。
The first phase required them to identify a customer that was not well-served by Merril Lynch, or perhaps a new customer and to profile those customers in terms of their risk and investment profits.
第一个是要求他们找到,未受到美林良好服务的顾客,或者是一个新顾客,并且根据风险和,投资利润对顾客分组。
at least as much a distinguishing feature between good venture capitalists among each other as the quality of their ideas.
这至少和创意质量一样,是区别优秀风险投资者,的重要特征之一。
Suppose you could find 10,000 independent assets, then you could drive the uncertainty about the portfolio practically to 0.
假设你能找到一万项相互独立的资产,那么你就可以将这个投资组合的风险,降到几乎为零。
.. The equity premium is the-- 2.8% this short-term 2.8% is the riskless return, historically, for a period of almost 200 years.
股权溢价就是-,这个短期无风险投资收益率是,是根据近200年的数据得出的。
They were making risky investments but they weren't reporting them properly on the SEC forms, so people didn't know how risky Enron was.
从事风险投资,安然并未按照证交会规定适当披露这些消息,所以大众不知安然面临多大风险
Suppose you step out in the risk spectrum and put a dollar into the bond market.
假设你愿承担更多风险,将一美元投资于债券市场
Portfolio management pools risks in a different way: by assembling a diversified portfolio or a portfolio that's negatively correlated with a risk that someone has.
而投资组合管理采用了不同的方式,多元化的资产配置,或者风险负相关性的,投资组合
As a matter of fact,there might not even be a benchmark against which you can measure results and you'd think about the venture capital world.
事实上,甚至也许没有一个指标,能用来衡量这些市场的投资结果,想想风险投资领域
Of course, in the venture capital world, the least efficiently priced of all, there's a 43.2% differential between the top quartile and the bottom quartile.
当然在最无法有效定价的风险投资领域,第一和第三个四分位数之间的差距,可以达到43.2%
We have private equity, we have venture capital, and we have employees getting incentive options.
例如私人权益,风险投资,还有用于激励员工的期权工具。
You might have brought in investments or something by borrowing money, so the investment--the combined investment and liability could be very volatile.
你可能通过贷款,进行投资或运行某种项目,因而投资...这种兼有投资,和负债性质的项目,风险极高
Or should I spend my time and energy trying to find the top quartile bond, top quartile real estate manager,or buyout manager, or venture capital manager?
还是说,我应该投入时间和精力,去找一流的债券经理人,一流的不动产或杠杆收购经理人,或者一流的风险投资经理人
There's always a risk that investors will suddenly want their money back.
风险无时不在,投资者会突然要求撤回资金
I think reselling is an element of things like venture capital.
我想经销是类似于,风险投资之类的组成部分。
How do you hug the market in the venture capital world?
如何掌控风险投资领域
If you would have stepped further out of the risk spectrum and put your money into a portfolio of small stocks you would have gotten 15,922 times your money.
如果你愿承担更多的风险,将钱投资于小盘股组合,你就能获得本金的15922倍
They have a formula that defines how much Tier I and Tier II capital a bank has to hold and the amount depends on the risk class of their investments.
有一个公式可以计算出,一个银行到底需要持有多少一级和二级资本,其数量取决于他们投资项目的风险等级
That would mean that everybody is holding that same portfolio of risky assets and nobody is different, they're only different in how-- what proportions they hold the risky-- the tangency portfolio.
这就意味着每个人,都持有相同风险资产投资组合,每人都是一样的,他们唯一的不同在于-,他们所持有风险资产的比例-,也就是切线资产组合。
Well if you're an investor, you don't like variance.
假如你是一个投资者,你不喜欢风险。
It's a huge amount of money that they're managing, but I was trying to convince them that they should do something to manage their oil risks because they're way over-invested in oil.
他们管理着一大笔钱,不过我试图说服他们,采取一些措施来应对他们手里石油的风险,因为他们过于侧重在石油上的投资。
The minimum variance portfolio is down here.
风险最小的投资组合在这一点取到。
Finally, I just want to say, next lecture is January twenty-eighth and we're going to talk about portfolio diversification, which is one very important application of the fundamental principle of risk management, as applied to securities.
最后,我想说下一讲是在1月28日,到时我们会谈谈资产组合多样化,这是风险管理基本原则中,对证券投资来说,这是非常重要的一项应用。
Our foreign exposure is not limited to the marketable security exposure, which I cited as being 15% of the fund, but there's foreign exposure in real estate, there's foreign exposure in leverage buyouts, there's foreign exposure in venture capital.
我们的境外投资,并不限于可交易证券类,那只占总资产的15%,也有境外不动产投资,境外杠杆收购,以及境外风险投资
So 90% of your portfolio is in domestic marketable securities and only 10% is invested in things like real estate or venture capital or private equity -hardly enough to make a difference in terms of the portfolios returns.
于是90%的投资都在本国有价证券中,仅10%用于比如不动产,风险资本或私募股权投资,这一小块几乎对投资回报,没有什么作用
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