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Well, those hedge funds charge enormously more than what a standard manager of marketable securities' charges.
那些对冲基金经理的收费,远比证券投资经理的收费高
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And it's for a lot of business executives
这是为很多商业经理人开办的学校
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So let's pick on our two managers; let's have two people who have spoken before, so the guy in the red shirt's name is? Steve.
我找两个同学当经理,找两个发过言的人吧,穿红衬衫的男生,叫斯蒂文
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Then I want to talk about money managers-- professional money managers-- people like David Swensen.
接着,我会讲短期资本经理,像大卫·斯文森一样的,专业的短期资本经理
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Can I speak with your manager?
我可以跟你的经理谈谈吗？
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Or should I spend my time and energy trying to find the top quartile bond, top quartile real estate manager,or buyout manager, or venture capital manager?
还是说,我应该投入时间和精力,去找一流的债券经理人,一流的不动产或杠杆收购经理人,或者一流的风险投资经理人
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Steve, and I guess in red he should be the Coca-Cola guy, and let's pick on our Jimmy stewart from last week, whose name is Patrick.
斯蒂文是可口可乐的经理,再请出上周的吉米·斯图尔特,叫帕特里克的那位同学来
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Where even if you can find somebody who's going to be a first quartile manager, there's almost no difference between the first quartile return and the third quartile return.
即使你能找到一位,一流的经理人,但在债券市场收益中,第一和第三个四分位数之间几乎没有区别
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As a matter of fact, it costs an increasing amount to play the game when you look at the fees that are paid to investment managers and hedge funds.
事实上,当把付给投资经理,和对冲基金的费用都算进去的话,这个博弈的成本越来越高
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That's when a new manager appears subsequent to the beginning of the ten-year period; they'll put not only the new numbers in, but they'll take the history of the new manager and put that history into the database.
即在10年期开始后,每出现一位新的基金经理,不仅是新的业绩数字会进入数据库,新经理的历史记录,也会填入数据库
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You want to spend your time and energy pursuing the most inefficiently priced asset classes because there's an enormous reward for identifying the top quartile venture capitalist and almost no reward for being in the top quartile of the high- quality bond universe.
你应该投入所有的时间和精力,去追逐最不能有效定价的资产,因为在那里才能通过一流的风投经理人,获得巨额的投资回报,而在债券市场,即使债券优质,经理人一流,回报微乎甚微
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The way you would go about it, if you're a portfolio manager, is you have to come up with estimates of the inputs to these formulas-- that means the expected returns, the standard deviations, and the covariances.
你所要做的，如果你是一个资产经理，你要做的事情就是,对公式里面的一些参数进行估计-,那些参数包括预期收益，标准差，和协方差。
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Depends on--I don't want to be too rigorous about that because you could imagine the other way around, but if you talk to managers this sounds more realistic, at least for retail goods like Coke and Pepsi.
这方面我不想太绝对,因为你们可能会想象其他的情形,但如果你们和那些经理谈过,现在的模型会更贴近现实,至少对于可乐这样的零售产品而言
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This is once you've decided that you're going to be an active manager and try and pursue market beating strategies, how do you decide where it is that you want to spend your time and energy?
一旦你决定了要当主动管理型基金经理人,努力追求高于市场收益的策略,你会如何决定,在哪些方面投入时间和精力
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There's a very important phenomenon that you need to take into account when you look at these histories of returns that are generated by active managers.
当查阅这些主动管理型基金经理,留下的历史收益记录时,有个很重要的现象
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All right, so Patrick when he's in the when he's playing the manager of Pepsi he's going to produce more of this undrinkable liquid and produce this quantity here.
好的,帕特里克是,百事可乐公司的经理,他会生产更多这种难喝的饮料,产量是这么多
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Well, that leakage--that 1.5% or 2% that you pay your hedge fund manager- plus the 20% of profits really reduces the amount of return that's available for the owners of capital.
系统的损耗,大约1.5%或2%的管理费率,用来支付给对冲基金经理,加上20%的利润提成,显著减少了资本所有者,可以得到的回报
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If you look at the Frank Russell data and I just cited ten-year returns ending June 30,2005, so that period started in 1996 -well,in 1996 there were 307 managers that reported returns.
看看罗素公司的数据,我引用了从1996年开始,截至2005年6月30日的十年收益,在1996年有307位经理人公布收益
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If you look at the behavior of groups of active managers and the dispersion of returns, I think it gives you some idea of what the efficiency is with which assets in these individual assets classes are priced.
如果观察一下主动管理型的基金经理们,和他们的投资收益分布,我想它会告诉你一些信息,哪些资产是有效定价
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So that staggering amount of money then impairs the fund managers' ability to continue generating excellent returns, but they can stay in business and collect the fees that they get for having this huge pile of money.
于是这巨额的资金,会削弱基金经理,持续创造高收益的能力,但经理们依旧能保住饭碗,一如既往地从巨额资金中获得佣金
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Well,that's going to inflate the numbers too because the only managers that kind of raise their hand and say, hey I've got this interesting new approach to managing domestic equities--or whatever the asset class is -are the ones that have succeeded.
当然是会让指数起点偏高,因为经理人倾向于提供那些,举手说找到有趣的新方法,来管理国内股权投资,或其他投资的,成功的历史数据
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But Patrick knows Steven pretty well; he knows those guys who run Coca-Cola are pretty smart guys, so Patrick knows that the guy who runs Coca-Cola is going to anticipate that the guy who runs Pepsi is gonna cheat on the guy who runs Coca-Cola, and hence the guy who runs Coca-Cola is going to play a best response to Patrick's cheat on quantity.
但是帕特里克也很了解史蒂文,他知道可口可乐的经理都很精明,帕特里克知道可口可乐的经理会预料到,帕特里克会违约,因此可口可乐的经理就会寻找最佳对策,因为帕特里克违约在先
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