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Well there actually was a stock market in Russia before 1918 and in China before 1949, so what happened to investors?
实际上,俄罗斯在1918年前,中国在1949年前设有股票市场,那么投资者会得到怎样的回报呢
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Just at the point of maximum opportunity people were at the point of maximum bearishness about the equity markets.
就在最好的投资机会来临的时候,人们对股票市场看空的程度,却刚好达到顶峰
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I think one of the most pervasive problems in the financial markets is investment with too short a time horizon.
我认为金融市场上,最为普遍的问题,就是投资期限太短
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It emphasizes the long run performance of the stock market, but it's really a general treatise of financial markets.
虽然这本书着重于股票长期投资,但它其实是一本关于金融市场的综合性著作
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I don't necessarily think that you should do that now because it could theoretically turn in this country.
我觉得你没必要现在就投资于货币市场,因为理论上货币最终还得被归还到国内。
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So you say, how can I make money beating the market if every quarter I have to tell everybody what I'm doing?
因此你会说,如果我按季度公布所有的投资活动,那我还怎么跑赢市场赚取利润
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Two, what do you think are the best ways an individual ? investor can make the best return in the market these days?
第二个问题，在现在的形势下，你认为个人投资者,怎样才能从市场中获得最大的收益？
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Well, they created special entities called SIVs and the SIVs would be borrowing money on the commercial paper market to buy subprime loans.
银行建立特殊实体结构投资公司,而结构投资公司,通过在纸货市场借贷,以购入次级债
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The stock market is the best investment for long-term holders who can just buy and hold through the ups and down of the market."
对于那些能在股票市场的跌宕起伏中,一直持股的长线投资者而言,股票市场是最佳的投资
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The Morningstar study is incredibly damning in terms of the market timing abilities of individual investors.
晨星公司这一研究结果,谴责了个体投资者的市场时机选择能力
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They didn't want flippers; they didn't want the company that's speculating in real estate, they want it to be a holder of real estate.
国会不希望投资者快进快出,不希望他们在房地产市场投机,而是希望他们是房地产的持有人
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Suppose you step out in the risk spectrum and put a dollar into the bond market.
假设你愿承担更多风险,将一美元投资于债券市场
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As a matter of fact,there might not even be a benchmark against which you can measure results and you'd think about the venture capital world.
事实上,甚至也许没有一个指标,能用来衡量这些市场的投资结果,想想风险投资领域
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This is about the stock market, but I asked a number of this I've been doing since 1996 do you agree with the following statement?
这往往是指投资股票市场,但是1996年之后,我问过一些人,你认同以下这种说法吗
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We want people who are maniacally focused on beating the markets, generating superior investment returns.
我们需要能完全专注于战胜市场的人,来产生卓越的投资收益
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Sometimes the numbers can be pretty dramatic; I mean,2000 was a year of great flux in the markets because that's when the Internet bubble burst.
有些时候投资者的数量很大,像2000年市场的流动性很大,因为在那一年互联网泡沫破裂
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Are you going to hold the market portfolio, index your assets, match the markets results?
你是应该持有市场投资组合,指数化资产,获取与市场一致的回报率
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The respondents were asked to identify the organization that insures you against losing money in the stock market or as the result of investment fraud.
被调查者被问到是否知晓,在股票市场或者在投资欺诈案中,保护他们的资金不受损失的机构
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There's something else going on besides diversification; diversification means you get the average return.
除了投资多样化外,肯定还有别的因素,投资多样化代表着市场平均收益
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So, what it means then is that the optimal portfolio should not be the one I show there, but should be one that's very heavily into stocks.
他所想提出的观点是,最佳投资组合并不是我在这讲的那个，而是把大量资金都投资到股票市场中。
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Well,I think one of the questions --the question is how can you successfully invest in a market where,I guess, people say you might catch a falling knife.
其中一个问题,提问是,怎么能够成功地,投资于一个,有所谓抄底行情的市场
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I only started asking this in 1996 when the stock market boom was well under way, but already 69% of my respondents, who were high-income investors, strongly agreed.
996年时我才提出这种疑问,那时股票市场一片欣欣向荣,这些受访者是高收入投资者,但69%的受访者强烈认同这点
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We'll look at things--sectors say they're cheap or expensive and exploit the opportunity; but at least in terms of how I define market timing, it wouldn't be included in that definition.
关注研究资产和行业的细节,看它们是便宜了还是贵了,来发掘投资的机会,但至少在我所定义的市场时机选择方面,并不包括这些
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Firms that do that are, in practice, however, the minority and most mutual funds have some gimmick or some special-- they claim to be beating the market not forming the optimal portfolio.
然而实际上,这么做的公司很少,大部分共同基金都会耍些花招,或有一些特别的...,他们强调他们的收益率将强于市场平均水平,而非建立最佳投资组合
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But, when you move from lending money to the government -either short-term with bills or longer term with bonds -to investing in the equity market, there's a stunning difference in terms of the returns.
当你转变投资方式,从借钱给政府,即通过短期债券或长期债券的形式,变成投资于股票市场,回报率的差别会大到让你吃惊
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Because we hold relatively stable, relatively well-diversified portfolios, security selection turns out not to be an important determinant of returns for most investors and market timing turns out not to be an important determinant of returns.
因为持有相对稳定,和相对分散的投资组合,证券选择不再是,决定投资者回报率的重要因素,而市场时机选择,也不会成为决定回报率的重要因素
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So, it's not surprising that asset allocation explains more than 100% of returns and that, for the community as a whole, market timing and security selection are costly and lower the community's aggregate investment returns.
因此资产配置能解释100%以上的回报,也不足为奇了,对投资者整体来说,市场时机选择,和证券选择是有代价的,降低了总的投资回报
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When the stock market is going up they think that -they increasingly think that the stock market is just the best investment, until when it starts falling, then they start retracting from that.
当股票市场上行时,越来越多的人会觉得,股票是最佳投资选择,而当股市下跌时,人们纷纷从股市中撤出
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If we're all holding the same portfolio, that has to be the total, so that would mean that 9% of all wealth is oil, 9% of all--is oil 27% of all wealth is stocks, and 64% is bonds.
如果我们全都持有相同投资组合，总的投资组合就是如此，那就意味着9%的资产投资石油，市场总体的投资组合就是9%是石油,27%投资股票以及64%投资债券。
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