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Or are you going to manage each individual asset class actively, trying to beat the market and generate risk-adjusted excess returns?
还是积极管理每项资产,力求获得市场水平以上的回报率,以及风险调整后的超额收益
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The last man standing is asset allocation and that tends to drive both institutional returns and individual returns.
能决定回报率的只剩下资产配置,它将决定,机构投资和个人投资的回报率
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There were seventeen categories of equity mutual funds and they compared the dollar-weighted to the time-weighted returns.
其中一共是17种股权共同基金,将它们的货币加权回报率,和时间加权回报率进行比较
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Because that's true, then asset allocation ends up being the overwhelmingly important determinant of the University's results.
因为在这种情况下,资产配置,是学校投资回报率的,支配性的决定因素
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When you look at the returns for institutions, you see exactly what it is that you'd expect.
当你看到金融机构的投资回报率时,你看到的就是你所期望的
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In every one of those seventeen categories, the dollar-weighted returns were less than the time-weighted returns.
发现这17种基金中的每一种,货币加权回报率,都是低于时间加权回报率的
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The idiosyncratic behavior of Google stock from the time that we purchase it to the time that we sell it would define Yale's returns.
谷歌股票在从买入,到卖出这一段时间里的走势,将决定耶鲁的回报率
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Dollar-weighted obviously takes into account when the cash flows come in and when they go out.
货币加权回报率显然是把现金流入,以及流出考虑在内
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The returns would be attributable solely to my ability to market time the bond futures market.
回报率仅仅取决于,我选择买卖期货的市场时机的能力
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For any given level of return, you can reduce the risk; for any given level of risk, you can increase the return; sounds pretty good.
给定回报率,可以降低风险,给定风险水平,可以提高回报率,听上去不错
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Are you going to hold the market portfolio, index your assets, match the markets results?
你是应该持有市场投资组合,指数化资产,获取与市场一致的回报率
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The numbers that Jeremy Siegel produces seem implausibly high for the stock market.
杰里米·西格尔所提供的数据似乎表明,股票市场有难以置信的高回报率
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Well, now we're talking some real after inflation returns that can be consumed.
现在看看剔除通货膨胀后,可供消费的真实回报率
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Also, they've paid much more than long-term-- well it's not so different.
同样地，股票也比长期债券回报率高-,但不像短期那样差那么多。
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As a matter of fact, security selection would absolutely dominate the results.
事实上,在这种情况下,证券选择将决定回报率
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But if you look at the tech fund category, the difference between the dollar-weighted and the time-weighted returns--this is over a ten-year period -is 13.4% per annum; that's stunning.
但是如果你关注科技投资基金,十年间,货币加权回报率,和时间加权回报率间的差距,是每年13.4%,这是非常夸张的
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Roger Ibbotson, who is a colleague of Bob Shiller's and mine at the School of Management, has done a fair amount of work, studying the relative importance of these sources of returns.
罗格·伊博森是,我和希勒在管理学院的同事,他在对回报率来源的研究上,做了大量的工作
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If you look at the ten best-performing Internet funds from 1997 to 2002, the time-weighted return is 1.5% per year positive, so the funds went way up and then they went way down.
这十个表现最好的网络投资基金,从1997年到2002年,时间加权回报率是每年1.5%,基金一路涨涨跌跌
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Because we hold relatively stable, relatively well-diversified portfolios, security selection turns out not to be an important determinant of returns for most investors and market timing turns out not to be an important determinant of returns.
因为持有相对稳定,和相对分散的投资组合,证券选择不再是,决定投资者回报率的重要因素,而市场时机选择,也不会成为决定回报率的重要因素
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But it's positive 1.5% per year, time-weighted--that's the number that you see in the prospectus or the number that you see in the advertisements so you say, what's the big deal, no harm no foul.
但算下来回报率每年还是正的1.5%,时间加权回报率,是你在招股说明书中,或是在广告中会看到的数字,你会说,没什么大不了,既没损失,也不违法
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But, when you move from lending money to the government -either short-term with bills or longer term with bonds -to investing in the equity market, there's a stunning difference in terms of the returns.
当你转变投资方式,从借钱给政府,即通过短期债券或长期债券的形式,变成投资于股票市场,回报率的差别会大到让你吃惊
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Well, there's another way to look at returns -those are the dollar-weighted returns -and the dollar-weighted returns actually do a better job of describing the experience of the group of investors that participated in these funds.
还有另一种考察回报率的参数,货币加权回报,货币加权回报实际上,是描述基金参与者收益的,一个更好的指标
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Now, that's not a huge number but, obviously, when you're hoping to beat the market by a point or two losing by 0.3% per year because of your market timing inability is a bad thing.
看起来这不是个巨大的数字,明显地,当你希望获得,高于市场水平一到两个百分点的回报率,却由于抓不住市场时机而每年亏个0.3%,就很糟糕了
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Compound that 13.4% over ten years and there's just an enormous gap between those mutual fund numbers that are in the prospectus and in the advertisement--the time-weighted returns and the dollar-weighted returns that talk about the actual experience of the investment community.
按13.4%复利算一下10年期的结果,你会发现在招股说明书和广告里给出的,用来反映投资机构实际业绩水平的,时间加权回报率,和货币加权回报率数字之间,有着巨大的差异
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Alternatively, if I went back to the office and took Yale's $22.5 billion dollars and decided that I was going to day trade bond futures, security selection wouldn't have anything to say about the returns; asset allocation wouldn't have anything to say about the returns.
或者,如果我回到办公室,把耶鲁的225亿美元,投资于即日平仓的债券期货,在这种情况下,证券选择不会影响回报率,资产配置也不会影响回报率
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He's come to the conclusion that over 90% of the variability of returns in institutional portfolios is attributable to asset allocation and that's the number that I think most people hear cited when they are looking at Roger Ibbotson's work.
他得出结论,机构投资中,超过90%的回报率变动,要归因于资产配置,我想这是罗格·伊博森的文章里面,被人引用得最多的结论
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If I went back to my office after speaking with you this morning and took Yale's $22.5 billion dollars and put all of it into Google stock, asset allocation would have very little to say about what Yale's returns would be.
如果我今早下课之后回到办公室,把耶鲁的225亿美元,全部投资于谷歌股票,资产配置在这种情况下,对耶鲁的回报率就没有多少影响了
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